November 6, 2024
What a day for the markets. I’ve read on X/Twitter this has been the highest % change for SPX/SP500 since 2020. 2020 was a great year for equities after the March bottom.
But let’s get down to business.
Am I still short? Of course I am, but again, as I shared earlier it was a small position.
Did I add to the short? Yes, I did something that can put me at risk of ruin if done with size and continuously; however, I must emphasize risk and position management. I did not make this an outsized position in my portfolio for this very reason - SPX going up ~2.5% in a day, is unexpected, but one should prepare for all situations and so I maintained around 15% invested.
So, when will you get out of the short? End of November, it is more a timing related short than price. I will use it as a hedge, as overall my portfolio has done well with this massive up move.
Regrets? Many, once again, the market makes fools of us all if we stay in it long enough. Admittedly, I do feel foolish missing this tremendous rally, but we must continue on.
A new factor or page in the realm of risk has entered: Polymarket/Kalshi. It is astonishing how these markets’ participants predicted the correct outcome, even better than pollsters who their whole career/firm is based on election predictions.
If one is to manage risk and seek out returns, one must start to allocate funds to these betting markets and make calculated bets. The risk is massive, these are essentially 0DTE option contracts. I’ll speak for Kalshi as I have used the application. The expiration is the date on the bet (IE: A presidential bet’s expiration would have been today 11/6/24), and the payout is massive, or can slowly trend to 0.00 if wrong. BUT! If you are wrong, you can cash-out prior to the expiration date for 0-10% of the total bet size. If you are in a long-term bet, your money is allocated to a Money-market type of fund gaining 4% interest which is great.
However, please be aware that this is essentially gambling if you are not doing any data analysis, and that is not healthy for your pocketbook or yourself!
Moving along, I am still short and entered Crypto/Gold related ETFs/Stockers, and also entered a small-cap related ETF.
I’m very curious to see how we end this month. Stay safe!
Disclaimer: Please note that all information shared here is for informational purposes only and not intended as financial advice.
