December 3, 2024

What a month. I’ve been stopped out of my short, and although we did see a downturn mid-month in November it was not at all what I was expecting.

In terms of positioning, I’m long mostly small-caps, and mega-caps. As you may know I am an MBA student/candidate and so I haven’t been able to update consistently, but I was able to enter some positions during the move down. My largest position is NVDA, and the others are GDX, MSFT, AMZN and FICO. The small caps make a relatively small portion of my portfolio but as a whole it is substantial, I’m treating them as small lottery tickets. I haven’t been able to fully enter a position in a triple leveraged ETF, and if AVGO/AMD turn around I might be able to enter SOXL and close it out around 12/30.

I’m not sure what is going on in regards to how expensive the stock market has become in regard to nearly every measuring metric that is traditionally used to see if a stock or market is overvalued/undervalued. Many smarter than me and much wiser say this is a bubble, others say they are participating but cautiously, and those that had a stellar 2021 are posting their PnL.

I’m not sure what bucket I’m in. I wasn’t able to take advantage of the turn in small caps, or the short in semis, or the rally due to politics (Tesla, DJT, etc.).

The best trade I’ve had this past month is a long in MSTR when it was oversold and a long in SMCI because even if they are doing what is being alleged by other reports, there could still be a dead cat bounce which is what we saw. The worst trade is the short, and you can also add the opportunity cost of missing the potential massive rally in certain equities.

Rough end of the year, which is something I’ve had for the past couple of years. I always end up chasing alpha these last 3 months of the year, and always end up short (pun maybe intended)!

Let’s hope for a better December for all our PnLs, but be safe! Use your stops, this market can very well come down any day now, but historically December is unlikely to be that month from a probability perspective.

Disclaimer: Please note that all information shared here is for informational purposes only and not intended as financial advice.