September 9, 2024

Hard reversal around ~5620 SPX. As of this post on Sunday, SP500 closed at 5408.42.

I’m still in most positions, but it is becoming difficult to hold. Some of my positions were stopped out.

We need to see a bounce, and it needs to come soon. If we do have a bounce, I’ll be hedging around ~5500. In hindsight a hedge should have come in once we broke the weekly support for two weeks (around 5550-5560SPX).

Very important week, if there is no bounce, I’d say 5000-4900 is in the cards. We have seen these past couple of years there has been consistent weakness in September and October. Election years are known to have a rocky September and October, but rallying end of November into December ; Larry Williams talks about this below (19:46 mark). A video from 2020, which was also an election year.

Important note, volatility declines after an election.

A rally is needed here, if not waterfall to 5000-4900 is possible ; 5321 SPX must hold.

Stock Market when Republicans win (Ignore the overlay - it is from 2020) ; rally after election day. Red chart below does not look like 2024 YTD. 

Stock Market when Democrats win (Ignore the overlay - it is from 2020). Volatility after election day, but we rally into December. 2024 SPX YTD does look somewhat similar to this chart. 

So I am looking for protection end of September, or selling. 

Stay safe. 

Disclaimer: Please note that all information shared here is for informational purposes only and not intended as financial advice.